Forbes.com – May 25, 2022
This Forbes article discusses the Federal Reserve, interest rates and the risk of a recession.
In it, David Schneider points out that “An economic downtown is undoubtedly possible. That said, it is worth noting that the yield curve that has the best track record of predicting recessions”
He notes that as of the date of the article, the 10-year Treasury yield minus the 3-month Treasury bill yield remains positive- and that historically, that has put the odds of a recession in the low single digits.